SECRET
PLANNING FACTORS
5. In addition to the assumption above, a number of other pervasive factors have been taken into account.
6.
Retention of Flexibility of Planning. The baseline for preparation of the Garrison Withdrawal Plan is the intelligence
assessment of the external and internal threats to Hong Kong during the 10 years leading up to the 1997 handover. The Withdrawal Plan must provide flexibility to accommodate future changes in the threat and must be subjected to regular review by the Steering Committee. It must also be 'event led' rather
than based too closely on selected dates.
7.
Confidence in the Joint Declaration. The Hong Kong public's perception that the Joint Declaration is being satisfactorily implemented will be a major factor in the preservation of stability in Hong Kong in the period up to 1997.
8.
•
•
Confidence in the World Economy Changes in the world economic climate before 1997 could adversely affect the stability
and the internal security of Hong Kong, the third largest financial
capital in the world.
9.
Capability of the RHKP. A major factor governing the timing of reductions in the British Military Garrison is the expansion of the RHKP to take over responsibility for IS and border control duties. It is hoped that the RHKP expansion will progress largely as planned, and that no serious setback to police morale or capability will occur. Nevertheless, the Withdrawal Plan must provide flexibility and a degree of overlap to compensate
for slippages.
10. The Garrison. HMG, the HKG and the PRCG have direct interests in whether, and in what strength, a British Military Garrison remains in Hong Kong until 1997. Numerous factors impinge on the judgement including financial considerations and the importance of handing over Hong Kong with a stable
-
10/40/0
2 SECRET