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28 This diagnosis leads on to two further questions. First, could China's foreign policy change again if internal policy and the nature of the leadership changed in future, for instance because of some conspicuous failure of the reform process? It would be rash to say No, since there are still so many unknown and variable factors in Chinese politics. On the fact of it, the political culture and institutions creased by Deng Xiaoping are not so fragile that, say, a new leader who was personally pro-Soviet could change the alignment drastically; but one cannot be sure.. In the short and medium term, however, I find it difficult to postulate any combination of internal and external circumstances which might lead Chinese policies in a positively adventurist or pro-Soviet direction. Assuming that China's armed forces do not become over-mighty again, and that a more stable relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union continues both globally and regionally, I think that the most likely result of a serious economic set-back would be for China to draw in her horns and put her external relationships on hold.
whether she has meanwhile found
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24. Secondly, what will happen when and if China achieves her geopolitical goal and becomes mistress of her. regional destiny and a power of great influence world-wide? The answer will depend on
or more correctly has been offered ways of enjoying her strength and prestige which do not demand aggression or the abuse of others' interests; and indeed might be put at risk by the latter. We in the United Kingdom have provided one model of how this might be done in our handling of the future of Hong Kong. As an experienced supra-regional power with positions of influence all over the world, we should on the face of it be well placed to evolve and implement ideas for doing the same thing with the Chinese on a much broader foreign policy scale. Should we not have a shot?
25. I am copying this despatch to Her Majesty's Ambassadors in Washington, Moscow, Tokyo, Bonn, Paris, to the High Commissioner in New Delhi, to the United Kingdom Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York, the United Kingdom Permanent Representat- ive on the North Atlantic Council, the Governor of Hong Kong and Her Majesty's Consul-General in Shanghai.
I am, Sir,
Yours faithfully
Richeva frons
Richard Evans.
CONFIDENTIAL