more conservative policy (as a development strategy rather than as a temporary corrective) would be likely and China now has a head of Government who could lead such a move.
The demise of Deng Xiaoping will remove a dynamic element from the reform process and younger reformist leaders will not have the authority to force through changes. The leadership system is likely to become more bureaucratic and have to take greater account of vested institutional interests. This political development would coincide with and reinforce growing economic tendencies towards inertia.
>4. Such a development would not mean simply a bit more
central planning and tighter economic controls. It would reestablish the rationale of bureaucracy and halt the progress of political reforms; reverse the growth of autonomous economic, social and cultural activity, ie that which lies outside direct bureaucratic control; and reduce the attractiveness of Western contacts.
M
This would in turn affect
the way the West governments, businessmen and media - Iregards China.
5.
The experience of Eastern Europe since the late 1950s is a useful pointer to the possible course of events in China. For all the differences in political, social, cultural and economic environments, attempts at reform in Eastern Europe and China are aimed at reforming a shared political and economic organisational structure which has a dogged and determining influence on the way these societies operate politically and economically. It is not coincidental that reform in Eastern Europe and China is repeatedly thwarted by, amongst other things, entrenched vested interests and the social and political consequences of allowing market forces greater play. Although reformism has not been killed off in Eastern Europe, and attempts have been recurrent, the example of 'Brezhnevite' stagnation which gripped the Soviet Union for 15 years after the failed attempts at reform in the mid-1960s, is not encouraging.
6.
All this is of course speculative, but any comments you or copy addressees have would be welcome.
Peter Clark.
P Clark
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