CONFIDENTIAL
3116
MDHI 3729
·
ELDERLY MEMBERS OF THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP. ONLY YANG SHANGKUN, WHO IS WIDELY TIPPED TO REPLACE LI XIANNIAN AS PRESIDENT REMAINED OF
THE OVER-80'S AND HE IS A STAUNCH LIEUTENANT OF DENG XIAOPING. FOUR OF THE OUTGOING POLITBURO MEMBERS FOUND POSTS ON THE CENTRAL ADVISORY COMMISSION, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORMAL DECISION-MAKING PROCESS. THIS IS A POSITIVE ACHIEVEMENT FOR DENG XIAOPING AND THE CULMINATION OF HIS EFFORTS TO ARRANGE A SUCCESSION NOT ONLY TO HIMSELF BUT ALSO TO THE REVOLUTIONARY GENERATION IN
CHINA.
5. DENG XIAOPING HIMSELF IS LIKELY TO RETAIN HIS CHAIRMANSHIP OF THE PARTY'S MILITARY COMMISSION WHEN THAT BODY IS ELECTED ON 2 NOVEMBER. AN OFFICIAL SPOKESMAN SAID ON 1 NOVEMBER THAT DENG WOULD STILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE'' IN PARTY AND GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS AS A CHIEF ARCHITECT'' OF MAJOR POLICY: AND THAT HIS LEADING ROLE DID NOT DEPEND ON HIS POSITIONS BUT ON THE CORRECTNESS OF HIS IDEAS. ΤΟ A LESSER EXTENT THIS ALSO APPLIES TO THE OUTGOING VETERANS. BUT IT IS NONETHELESS AN IMPORTANT REDUCTION OF THEIR INFLUENCE TO HAVE
INDUCED THEM TO RETIRE.
6. THE REMOVAL OF YANG DEZHI AND YU QIULI SUGGESTS THAT THE LOG-JAM HAS FINALLY BEEN BROKEN AT THE HEAD OF THE MILITARY LEADERSHIP IN CHINA. THEIR STEPPING DOWN OPENS THE WAY FOR YOUNGER MILITARY OFFICERS TO TAKE PART IN THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP. CHINA'S MORE LIBERAL INTELLECTUALS WILL NO DOUBT BE GLAD TO SEE THE DEPARTURE OF TWO OF THE MORE HARD LINE IDEOLOGUES, HU QIAOMU AND DENG LIQUNI,
FROM THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP,
•
THE LATTER WAS ALSO NOT RE-ELECTED TO THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE AND THUS LOSES THIS POSITION ON THE PARTY SECRETARIAT FOREIGN MINISTER WU XUEQIAN WAS RE-ELECTED TO THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE AS WAS HIS SENIOR
VICE MINISTER QIAN QICHEN.
·
7. THE NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE AS A WHOLE IS RATHER SMALLER THAN THE ONE ELECTED IN 1982, WITH 175 FULL AND 110 ALTERNATE MEMBERS (COMPARED TO 210 FULL AND 138 ALTERNATE MEMBERS). THE AVERAGE AGE, IN KEEPING WITH A LONG STANDING COMMITMENT BY THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP, HAS FALLEN FROM 59.1 YEARS WHEN THE 12TH CENTRAL COMMITTEE WAS ELECTED IN 1982 TO 55.2 YEARS FOR THE 13TH CENTRAL COMMITTEE. MOST OF THE FULL MEMBERS OF THE PRESENT CENTRAL COMMITTEE ARE SENIOR OFFICE-HOLDERS IN CENTRAL GOVERNMENT AND PARTY DEPARTMENTS, IN THE PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ARMY, AND IN PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS AND PARTY HIERARCHIES. THE MAJORITY OF THEM HAVE BEEN APPOINTED TO THEIR POSTS IN THE LAST FEW YEARS AND CAN GENERALLY BE CONSIDERED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE REFORM PROGRAMME. HU YAOBANG, THE
2
PAGE
CONFIDENTIAL