Who will be Who
20. The new Central Committee will hold its first plenary session very soon after the Congress has ended. It will elect a new Politburo, a new Standing Committee of the Politburo, a new Secretariat and a new permanent General-Secretary of the Central Committee. Ever since Zhao Ziyang became acting General-Secretary on the resignation of Hu Yaobang, there has been intense speculation in Peking about the likely identity of the permanent General-Secretary. This has been coupled with speculation about the identity of the new Premier, on the assumption that Zhao will not hold both posts. That this assumption was correct was confirmed by Zhao himself at an airport press conference when he left Peking for Eastern Europe at the beginning of June. But that is the extent of anyone's certainty.
21. All the evidence, indeed, is that no decisions have yet been taken about who should occupy the two posts. The Vice-Chairman of the State Economic Commission I quoted in paragraph 19 above told me SO in terms; and reports from outside China (especially Hong Kong) strongly suggest as much. I believe that the posts are likely to be held by two out of quite a small group of people: Zhao Ziyang, Wan Li, Yao Yilin, Li Peng, Tian Jiyun and Hu Qili (of these Wan, Yao, Li and Tian are Vice-Premiers and members of the Politburo; Li and Tian are members of the Secretariat; and Hu is the senior member of the Secretariat under Zhao). The current rumour in Peking is that the two posts are likely to go to older rather than younger men; i.e. to Zhao, Wan and Yao rather than Li, Tian and Hu.
22. Whatever the identity of the occupants of the two posts, it looks likely that Deng will continue to occupy at least one of the two posts in the Party which he now holds (Chairman of the Central Advisory Commission and Chairman of the Central Military Commission). It also seems likely that most of the veterans of the "nostalgic left", who are known to be reluctant to retire, will continue to occupy the posts which they hold in the Politburo, the Commissions of which Deng is Chairman and the Central Discipline Inspection Commission (of which Chen Yun is Chairman).
23. It looks, therefore, as if we shall not be much the wiser after the Congress than we are now who will be the most powerful man in China after the disappearance of Deng (by disappearance, I mean his death or incapacity: as I have argued elsewhere, I believe that he will remain the most powerful man in the country for as long as he remains in good health, whatever posts he may hold in the Party and state).
As to the current political scene in China, I believe that this has three main features. In the strictly political sphere, reform is still very much on the agenda, even if within a framework more narrowly defined than was the case a year ago.
In the economic sphere, reform is being pursued, even if some policies (e.g. over price reform) are now being implemented more slowly. In the cultural and educational sphere, there is a new wave of illiberalism. I do not expect this mix to be changed by the Congress.
CONFIDENTIAL