CONFIDENTIAL
VISITS
3. Visits to China later in 1987 will include
Lord Skelmersdale, Joint Parliamentary Secretary at the
DHSS, who will attend an exhibition of Medical Equipment
in Peking (September), Lord Young, Secretary of State for
Trade and Industry, to attend the Sino-British Trade and
Economic Co-operation Seminar in Tianjin (October) and
HRH The Duke of Gloucester who will make a day trip to Shenzhen in October. A group of Chinese Parliamentarians
led by a Vice-Chairman of the Standing Committee of the
National People's Congress is expected to visit the UK in
May 1988.
CHINA INTERNAL
4.
China under Deng remains remains reasonably stable
politically, and comitted to her open-door and
modernisation policies. Fall of Hu Yaobang represents a
reluctance to move too far too fast, rather than any
substantial and sustained change of direction. But
choice of leaders to succeed Deng will influence future
pace and extent of economic reform programme and
political reform designed to underpin it. After an interval for taking stock, there are growing signs of a leadership consensus in support of economic reform but
against intellectual/artistic freedoms. Position may
become clearer at the Party Congress (begins 25 October).
Leadership changes may also be announced at the Congress.
Deng Xiaoping and other octogenarians are expected to
stand down from the Politburo Standing Committee.
SB3ABE
CONFIDENTIAL