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PS/Mr Renton
CONFIDENTIAL
HUB 02011 нив
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R 5x-413
48
FROM: D H Gillmore
CC:
W37 270 2156
2 March 1987
PS/PUS
Mr Boyd
Sir D Wilson
Mr McLaren
HKD
Planning Staff Research Dept
Sir P Cradock, No 10 Assessment Staff OT2, DTI
CHINA: ANNUAL REVIEW FOR 1986
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I submit:
Sir R Evans Annual Review for 1986;
a detailed commentary on the despatch, with an attached comment by Mr Masefield.
In the light of the current disturbed situation in China following the dismissal of Hu Yaobang, Mr Renton may find Mr Fletcher-Cooke's analysis of the present situation of interest. I commend it to him.
3. As Mr Fletcher-Cooke makes clear, the tendency of China's internal politics to swing like a pendulum is strongly marked. Recent statements by Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang seem designed to arrest the swing towards the "conservative idealogues". A key milestone is likely to be the appointment of a successor to Zhao (if indeed he takes up the position of General Secretary). Mr Renton may wish to note in particular paragraph 7 of Mr Fletcher-Cooke's submission which, in my view correctly, draws attention to mistaken perceptions in the West of Deng Xiaoping and his policies.
4. The Chinese leadership, following Hu Yaobang's dismissal, have been at great pains to stress that we can expect no change in their policy on Hong Kong. This may be so in essence. Nonetheless, it seems to me likely that cadres at intermediate and lower levels will now be extremely cautious in their dealings with us over the future Hong Kong SAR and its capitalist system. Many of them will be looking over their shoulders with some apprehension in their contacts with us, lest they be thought to be tarred with the "bourgeois-liberalist" brush. This may add to our problems in what promises to be already a year of extremely tricky and sensitive negotiations over Hong Kong.
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DH Gillmore
CONFIDENTIAL