B.
15.
CONFIDENTIAL
the development of representative government before
1997 could cause a collapse of confidence and damage
other aspects of Sino-British relations.
II.
Internal Political
China's internal stability cannot be assured. New
tensions might build up which could pose an eventual
threat to reformist economic and political policies.
III.
External Political
The Soviet leadership will continue to be concerned
over the improving relationship between Western
Governments and the Chinese, particularly in the field
of defence sales and will work to discourage its
further development.
IV.
Economic
In common with all China's trading partners, the UK
could face problems in trading with China if the
Chinese over-borrow, cannot export enough, or want us
to take more sensitive items under quota than we are
ready to contemplate.
OPPORTUNITIES
I.
Hong Kong
The signing, in 1984, of the Joint Declaration on the
question of Hong Kong provides the opportunity to
withdraw from Hong Kong with good prospects for the
future stability and prosperity of the Territory and
has opened the way for the development of warmer
relations and co-operation in other areas of mutual
PROAAJ