China

The programme still requires large scale imports of advanced

technology and a greatly increased balancing flow of export.

China's past record of prompt payment, and the relatively

modest external debt and debt service ratio has meant that

there have so far been no difficulties in attracting

adequate credit for her modernisation programme.

herself is concerned to avoid becoming over-committed, and

will seek to use counter-trade and other cooperative

arrangements to conserve foreign exchange where possible.

3. Economic development nas not followed a smooth path.

Agricultural reform based on the redistribution to peasant

housenolds of collectively owned land has led to a

significant increase in the Food production. But continued

development will be more difficult. Cultivable land remains

scarce and farming technology is backward.

Mineral

resources (especially oil, coal and certain non-ferrous

metais) could meet domestic demand and support foreign

exchange earnings, but infrastructive problems and energy shortages have resulted in production stoppages/due

sdue to the

development of the energy sector, communications

infrastructure and modernisation of industrial enterprises

are high priorities.

4.

China's foreign policy, marked by an emphasis on

China's "independence", is concerned to contain the spread

of Soviet and US influence and power, particularly in Asia.

Another key element has recently been the need to develop

closer relations with developed countries to help carry

PRбAAJ

CONFIDENTIAL

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