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4. ACCORDING TO EAST EUROPEAN SOURCES CITED BY REUTERS TODAY, 7HAO ZIYANG TOLD HAVASI FERENZ, SECRETARY OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE OF THE HUNGARIAN COMMUNIST PARTY ON 18 JANUARY THAT HU HAD NOT TRIED HIS
BEST TO REALISE THE DECISIONS OF THE 3RD PLENUM, AND HAD INDEED ACTIVELY HINDERED THE REALISATION OF THESE POLICIES DESPITE SEVERAL
WARNINGS OVER THE YEARS. HE HAD FAILED TO TAKE BOURGEOIS LIBERALISATION'(' SERIOUSLY AND HAD EVEN SUPPORTED BOURGEOIS LIBERAL ''THINGS'', HE HAD ALSO WANTED TO PUSH THE PROCESS OF POLITICAL REFORM AT TOO FACT A PACE. THE STUDENT DEMONSTRATIONS HAD FINALLY CONVINCED THE LEADERSHIP THAT HU HAD TO BE REMOVED AS HE WAS NEITHER SUITABLE FOR, NOR CAPABLE OF LEADING THE STRUGGLE AGAINST **BOURGEOIS LIBERALISATION'.
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5. IN THE LIGHT OF THESE STORIES, AND BECAUSE I THINK THIS INTERPRETATION THE MOST LIKELY A PRIORI, MY PRELIMINARY CONCLUSION IS THAT HU WAS FORCED TO RESIGN BECAUSE DENG HIMSELF HAD LOST CONFIDENCE IN HIM. THE OTHER INTERPRETATION WHICH IS BEING MUCH CANVASSED HERE IS THAT DENG WAS FORCED TO GET RID OF HU IN ORDER TO SATISFY CONSERVATIVES IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE LEADERSHIP. IT IS LIKELY THAT SUCH PEOPLE WERE UNHAPPY ABOUT HU'S PERFORMANCE., AND IT IS LIKELY, TOO, THAT THEY MADE THEIR DISSATISFACTION KNOWN TO DENG. BUT I DO NOT THINK THAT ANY SUCH PRESSURE WOULD ON THEIR OWN
HAVE LED TO HU'S REMOVAL.
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6. THERE REMAINS THE QUESTION OF TIMING. ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT HE HAD LOST CONFIDENCE IN HU, WHY DID DENG NOT WAIT UNTIL THE THIRETEENTH PARTY CONGRESS IN THE AUTUMN TO GIVE HIM DECENT BURIAL,
THE AMONG A LARGE NUMBER OF CHANGES AT THE TOP, ON THAT OCCASION ?. ONLY POSSIBLE ANSWER IS THAT HIS DEGREE OF DISSATISFACTION WAS VERY GREAT AND, AS IMPORTANT, THAT HE WAS PREPARED TO ACCEPT THE QUITE SERIOUS COSTS, TO HIS OWN REPUTATION AND TO THE REPUTATION OF CHINA GENERALLY, ENTAILED BY HU'S DISMISSAL NOW.
CONSEQUENCES.
7. IT HAD BECOME ACCEPTED INSIDE CHINA AND ABROAD THAT THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP WAS CONFIDENT AND UNITED. THAT HAS NOW CHANGED. IT HAS BEEN REVEALED THAT THE LEADERSHIP IS (AND HAS BEEN) BY NO MEANS UNITED. THIS IN TURN WILL DIMINISH THE CREDIBILITY OF WHAT DENG, ZHAO AND THE REST SAY ABOUT THE NATURE OF THE LEADERSHIP AND ITS POLICIES FOR SOME TIME TO COME. IT WILL ALSO DAMAGE DENG'S REPUTATION FOR GOOD JUDGEMENT, BUT (PARADOXICALLY) MAKE IT ALL THE MORE NECESSARY THAT HE SHOULD NOT RETIRE FROM HIS REMAINING POSTS IN THE PARTY AND THE STATE.
Confidential
18.