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82

(the Hany Suny index dropped 82 punuti

O

the news of thei's sexigenten

6. In Hong Kong Hu's sudden, departure will dent the image of stable

Lar least tenaporary

government in Péking and cause seme concern about the effect on Hong

Kong's future but there will be some comfort in the appointment of Zhao

Ziyang, recognised as a pragmatic reformer and supporter of the current

joint proposals. The dismissals of intellectuals will also raise fears

Chimer Fahrer in Koyking have

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for the future. However Chinese government policies towards Kory Kory will not be charged by this resignation

7. Zhao Ziyang's move

LS

A

IS

intothe Party General Secretary' S post szil 1, not unexpected

Chairman of the Preparatory Commutter Polatual Reform and, while enhance Dena 3 position Zhao i known as a committed economic reformer,

Λ i but thought to be conservative in matters of political reform: te wtri There are slowral contender for

Zhao's position as

is

Hu Qili, the permanent

considered a strong

both

who has been chi a liberal and (Deputy Prune remities) (Vice Premier of the ARE

protect Deng's flank from the ultra conservativas,

Premier has no obvious candidate to fill it.

secretary of the Politburo Secretariat, and one of the leading members of

the third echelon of Party leadership, was once

candidate to fill Hu Yaobang's post: but he omiziated with Hu Yaoksins,

Qias Shi and intellectual, and is now unlikely to do so. Li Peng

TIENTSIN State Council) and Li Rui huan (Mayor of ietsein) and also rumoured to

be in the running for the post. But it is too early te speculate further

and there is sufficient time before the October Party Congress for other

candidates to emerge.

7

Outlook

that the

Sishearten the intellectuals but rease are

8 Hu's departure will give heart to the middle level cadres: they will

interpret it as a sign that "bourgeois liberalisation has been halted and

progress of political reform has been reduced to a walking

pace. The four cardinal principles (the socialist road, the people's

Communist Party, and

democratic dictatorship, the leadership by the

Marxism-Leninism and

and Mao Zedong philosophy) are to be maintained and

there will be no more open debate of Party policies. But although the

central failures of Deng's reforms have been slowed down, the process

will continue.

3

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