PUBLIC OPINION:
Confidential
12.
IMMEDIATE PUBLIC REACTION WAS CONFUSED. SOME COMMUNITY LEADERS
MADE REASSURING STATEMENTS CITING THE BINDING NATURE OF THE JOINT
DECLARATION AND PEKING'S REAFFIRMATION THAT CHINA'S OPEN DOOR
POLICIES WOULD CONTINUE. OTHERS EXPRESSED DOUBTS. THE HANG SENG
INDEX FELL SHARPLY AND THEN RECOVERED. DISTRICT OFFICERS HAVE
REPORTED ON INITIAL REACTION. THE GENERAL FEELING SEEMS TO HAVE
BEEN ONE OF SURPRISE COUPLED WITH LONGER TERM RATHER THAN SHORT
TERM MISGIVINGS. SOME RESPONDENTS ARTICULATED THEIR LONGER TERM
RESERVATIONS BY SAYING THAT, DESPITE THE JOINT DECLARATION,
POST-1997 HONG KONG WILL BE VULNERABLE TO INTERFERENCE FROM PEKING
IF CCP IDEOLOGY CONTINUES TO DOMINATE CHINESE THINKING.
13. HU'S RESIGNATION HAS DAMAGED THE SETTLED SUCCESSION
CONCEPT AND HAS ELEVATED THE IMPORTANCE OF DENG XIAOPING'S
CONTINUED GOOD HEALTH IN PEOPLE'S MINDS. IT HAS REKINDLED FEARS,
NEVER FAR BELOW THE SURFACE, OVER CHINA'S POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND, ACCORDING TO DISTRICT OFFICE OFFICIALS, HAS BROUGHT HOME TO SOME
THE INCOMPATIBILITY OF COMMUNISM WITH HONG KONG'S CAPITALIST SYSTEM.
AS WELL AS THE ANXIETY EXPRESSED ABOUT THE POST-1997 PROSPECTS
FOR HONG KONG SOME RESPONDENTS WERE CONCERNED THAT THE PACE OF PRE-1997 POLITICAL REFORM, AS WELL AS THE CONTENT OF THE BASIC LAW,
WOULD ALSO BE AFFECTED. AGAINST THIS, THE APPOINTMENT OF ZHAO
ZIYANG AS ACTING GENERAL SECRETARY HAS BEEN REGARDED POSITIVELY.
14. SHORT TERM CONFIDENCE HAS NOT SUFFERED MUCH BUT OLD FEARS
HAVE RESURFACED AND MISGIVINGS OVER LONGER TERM PROSPECTS HAVE BEEN REINFORCED. CHINESE VIEWS ON POLITICAL CHANGE IN HONG KONG ARE LIKELY TO HARDEN, MOST PEOPLE IN HONG KONG WILL PROBABLY TAKE A
MORE CAUTIOUS APPROACH TO CHANGE AND THIS MAY AFFECT THOSE WHO
ARE COMMITTED TO DIRECT ELECTIONS.
15. WE SHALL REPORT FURTHER AS VIEWS EVOLVE. MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON EVENTS IN CHINA, AND IN PARTICULAR THE CONSEQUENCES OF HU'S DOWNFALL FOR HIS APPOINTEES IN THE PARTY AND FOR THE REFORM
PROGRAMME.
AKERS-JONES
YYYY
HMLNAN 7903
HONG KUNG AGREEMENT: RESTRICTED
LIMITED
COPILS TO:
MR FIFOOT
LEGAL ADVISERS
HD/HKD
HD/FED
RESEARCH DEPT (FE)
DEP/HD/PUSD PS
PS/MR RENTON
MR GILLMORE SIR D WILSON
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