CONFIDENTIAL # 3

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China.

China's role as a supplier of foodstuffs to Hong Kong is especially important in the case of livestock : in 1985, about 84% of the live pigs and 64% of the live

chickens consumed in Hong Kong were from China.

3.

Due to parallel trade and the devaluation of the

Renminbi, the price increases for foodstuffs imported from

China in the past few years have been consistently slower

than those for foodstuffs from other sources of supply

(Table 7). This has provided a dampening effect on the overall inflation rate in Hong Kong during those years.

4.

Because of land and other constraints, the local

agricultural sector is likely to shrink further in the

future. If, as in past years, China can continue to be a reliable supplier of foodstuffs at reasonable prices, this

development should not cause undue concern. Further, as a result of competition from other supplier countries and a shift in the taste of the local people in favour of

greater varieties of higher quality food, particularly

western food, and an increasing use of frozen food, other

sources of supply are providing a balance against any

tendency towards over-reliance on China. It is notable

that China's share of the imports of foodstuffs has actually declined from a peak in 1981, notwithstanding the slower rate of price increase of Chinese foodstuffs (Table

8).

5.

(b) Manufacturing

(i) China as a market

China is now the second largest market for Hong

Kong's domestic exports.

In 1985, it accounted for around

G.F. 326

CONFIDENTIAL ##

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