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(III)
21.
(BUT NOT EXPLICITLY PRESENTED AS SUCH).
THE FULL TEXT OF THE GREEN PAPER WOULD BE PASSED TO THE
CHINESE SOME TEN DAYS IN ADVANCE OF PUBLICATION. IT WOULD (NEXT WORD UNDERLINED) NOT BE PRESENTED AS A DRAFT.
BUT WE SHOULD HAVE TO RECOGNISE (AS WE DID OVER THE SEPTEMBER 1984 WHITE PAPER ON THE JOINT DECLARATION) THAT
IF THE CHINESE CHOSE TO PRESS FOR TEXTUAL CHANGES THIS
WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO RESIST. WE HAVE TO STRIKE THE
BEST BALANCE THAT WE CAN BETWEEN GIVING THE CHINESE SUCH
AMPLE ADVANCE NOTICE AS TO INVITE AMENDMENTS AND SO
LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE THAT ANY SUBSEQUENT AMENDMENT WOULD
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DELAY IN PUBLICATION.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER HOW THE WHITE PAPER WILL HAVE
TO BE HANDLED WITH THE CHINESE. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE NATURE
OF THE PROPOSALS WHICH IT PUTS FORWARD. HOWEVER, WE MUST
RECOGNISE THAT THE WAY IN WHICH THE GREEN PAPER IS HANDLED WILL
BE A PRECEDENT FOR THE WHITE PAPER, AND THAT WE ARE UNLIKELY TO
BE ABLE TO BE LESS FORTHCOMING WITH IT THAN WE HAVE BEEN WITH THE
GREEN PAPER.
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF THE 1987 REVIEW
22.
THE 1987 REVIEW, AND IN PARTICULAR THE ISSUE OF DIRECT
ELECTIONS TO THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL, HAS ALREADY STIMULATED
CONSIDERABLE PUBLIC DEBATE IN HONG KONG. OPINIONS ON THE
QUESTION OF DIRECT ELECTIONS ARE DIVIDED. ON THE ONE HAND, THERE
ARE THOSE WHO OPPOSE IN PRINCIPLE THE INTRODUCTION OF DIRECT
ELECTIONS: ON THE OTHER, THERE ARE THOSE WHO ARGUE FOR THE
INCLUSION OF A NUMBER OF DIRECTLY ELECTED SEATS IN THE
LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL IN 1988. BETWEEN THESE POLES OF OPINION,
VIEWS ARE MUCH MORE DIFFUSE, PARTICULARLY ON THE QUESTION OF WHEN
DIRECT ELECTIONS SHOULD BE INTRODUCED. IT IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN
THAT A CLEAR CONSENSUS ON THIS ISSUE WILL EMERGE DURING THE
COURSE OF THE REVIEW. THE CHINESE, FOR THEIR PART, WILL
DOUBTLESS CONTINUE TO MAKE KNOWN THEIR OWN MISGIVINGS ABOUT
DIRECT ELECTIONS AND TO SEEK TO INFLUENCE PUBLIC OPINION. THIS
COULD AFFECT THE OUTCOME EITHER WAY, DEPENDING ON THE SUBTLETY OF
THEIR TACTICS.
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