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SUSPICIONS WERE PARTICULARLY APPARENT WHEN VICE-FOREIGN MINISTER ZHOU NAN SPOKE TO THE LATE GOVERNOR IN EARLY DECEMBER 1986. THEY NOW APPEAR TO ACCEPT, ALBEIT RELUCTANTLY, THAT THE REVIEW MUST TAKE PLACE AND THAT THE GREEN PAPER MUST REFER TO DIRECT
ELECTIONS. BUT THEY CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT NO DECISION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO INTRODUCE DIRECT ELECTIONS BEFORE THE PROMULGATION OF THE BASIC LAW IN 1990. THEY HAVE ASKED TO SEE THE TEXTS OF THE GREEN AND WHITE PAPERS LONG ENOUGH IN ADVANCE OF PUBLICATION QUOTE TO PERMIT STUDY UNQUOTE.
4.
A PARAMOUNT CONCERN OF THE CHINESE IS TO AVOID A POSITION IN WHICH OUR WHITE PAPER PROPOSES THE INTRODUCTION OF AN ELEMENT OF DIRECT ELECTIONS IN 1988. THEY CONSIDER THAT THIS WOULD PRE-EMPT DECISIONS BY THEM ON THE POST-1997 ARRANGEMENTS WHICH ARE TO BE ENSHRINED IN THE BASIC LAW. THEY WOULD THEN BE FACED WITH A CHOICE BETWEEN REFLECTING THE OUTCOME OF THE 1987 REVIEW IN THE BASIC LAW, APPARENTLY UNDER PRESSURE FROM OURSELVES, OR MAKING NO PROVISION FOR DIRECT ELECTIONS: A COURSE WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONFRONTATION WITH OURSELVES.
5. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DRAW SETTLED CONCLUSIONS FROM THE LEADERSHIP CHANGES NOW IN TRAIN IN CHINA: BUT THERE IS A DISTINCT
RISK THAT THE GREATER RESTRICTIVENESS WHICH IS EMERGING OVER QUESTIONS OF DOMESTIC POLITICAL REFORM WILL BE REFLECTED IN A STILL MORE CAUTIOUS AND LESS FLEXIBLE ATTITUDE TO CONSTITUTIONAL
CHANGE IN HONG KONG.
THE PRESENT TIMETABLE FOR THE 1987 REVIEW
6. WE HAVE STATED PUBLICLY THAT THE GREEN PAPER WILL BE PUBLISHED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1987 (ALTHOUGH SOME HONG KONG GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS HAVE REFERRED TO APRIL/MAY), THAT A PERIOD OF PUBLIC CONSULTATION LASTING FOUR TO FIVE MONTHS WILL FOLLOW, AND THAT A WHITE PAPER WILL BE PUBLISHED AROUND THE END OF THE YEAR. (SIRE YOUDE'S LAST ADDRESS TO THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL REFERRED TO QUOTE BY THE END OF 1987 UNQUOTE.) KEY EVENTS WITHIN THE TIMETABLE WILL BE THE PRODUCTION OF THE REPORT OF THE SURVEY OFFICE, TO BE ESTABLISHED TO COLLECT PUBLIC VIEWS, AND DEBATE IN THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL. ON PRESENT PLANNING THESE WOULD TAKE
PLACE IN MID-OCTOBER AND EARLY NOVEMBER RESPECTIVELY.
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