FILE NAME 3:BROADSE7
FORECAST CASH FLOW PROFILE OF A PROSPECTIVE TELEVISION STATION BIDDER (# MILLION
YEAR
Advertising Income of the
Industry-
639.88 782.98 773.19 858.51
鑿
18
28
935.56 1,829.12 1,132.83 1,245.23 1,369.75 1,586.73 1,657.48 1,823.14 2.885.46 2,286.89 2,426.68 2,669.26 2,935.19 3,229.81 3,552.79 3.988.87 4,298.87
1
MODEL ! Cash flow forecast of Company X with anticipated market share of 18%, 38% & 45% for years 1.1 and 3 onwards MODEL 2- Cash flow forecast of Company X with anticipated market share for 19%, 20%, 38%, 40% & 45%; *a* years 1.
YEAR
2. 8, & and 5 onward
% of marketing share
18%
36%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45.
457%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
457.
-Advertising Incone
Sundry Incone
14.86
78.2923196382.73-421.88 46.39 76.55
84.28
463-18-589:41
92.62
13:.88
Total Revenue
84.35
278.35
459.27 585.20
555.72
611.29
982.46 568.35616:39479.83 745.93-828741
992.78 1,891.97-1,281.17 1,321.29 1,453.411,598.75 1,758.63-1,934,49
298.68
386.98 319.75 351.73 219.39 248.23 264.26 188.49 198.54 149.17 164.98 112.87 123.28 135.61
813.63 895.88 672.42 739.67
984.58 1,882.95 1,191.24 1,318.36 1,441.40 1,585.54 1,744.18 1,918.51 2,118.36 2,321.39
Less:
Operating Cost
-249-88----25448-323.68-394-46-410.13443:22
Royalty
-Taxation
12.27 -6.81
Total Costs
--
- Profit/(Loss)-
469.01- 499,90-527-88-559.56-593,19628:72-666-44–786.49 748,8) 799-74-841-98-891-85-945-36~~,882-88~1,862-28
35.37 -19.63
254.48-323.68 39,-----མ༔
-418.13- 463.38-524.81-565-81-618.21-658.33
718.48-767.83829.36894.98-967.12-1,845.52–1,138,661,223-16-1,323:67–17432-92-1,551-71-
-178.85-45.25 -64,8- 8767!
-93-42 2——————86 48 ——— 186;62—129;45—155.31 184.52-217:47-254;59-296,34343.25-395.89-454.89-529.94 594.84-677-49~759:68-
43.61 -24-20
1
52.95 63.52 -29.39
35.25
75.47 41.88
121.29 148.39 88.94 184.13 -49.36
77.92 57.79-67-27
161.92 186.84 -89.96 183.25
213.86
243.29 277.87 314.80 -153.77174.71 118.25-135.82--
Present Value ↑ 15%
Discount factor-
Discounted value
49.51
.8695652-75614376575162-57175324971767-4323276-3759378-.3269818 .2842624.2471847-2149432 1869872 1625288 141-3297-12289451868648-8729259-8888851-8702653-8611883- 49.87 47.68 47.03 48.65 48.61 43.4: 48.16 47.58 49.78 46.45
44.15 45.61 48.88 42.32
582.98 551.94-598.64-645.67 -89.69----43.245.85 34.23 -76.55-128.67 166.38 213.85268.63-388.79-357.31 495.96- 454.57
Accumulated disct value
-147.87 -34.21 42.61 -147.87 -182.89 -137.47
37.39
46.74
Present Value 2 25%
Discount factor- Discounted value Accumulated-disct-valua
.8.54 512,489.32768 - .262144-2897152.1677722 .1342177 .1873742 .8858973 .8687195 .8549756 #439885 .8351844 .8281475 .8225192 .8188144 .8144115 .8115292 9.76 8.87 12.88 13.93
11.73 18.72 15.18 18.68 17.58 16.29 19.81 -136.84 -29.96
38.61 33.18 35.66
22.67 22.36 21.72 28.84 -42.87-28.511.21 -22.05 --136.04 -165.88--131782-96.15--65,54
41,86 68.54-78.84~ 94.33-189,43123.36136.16-147:89158:61———— 168,37~177,24
Conclusion:
-In Model,with-an-initial-investment of $488 million, Company-X-is-expected-to-recoup-its-investment-and-earn-a-rate-of-return-of-151-by-year-£5, 11-is-however-not-expected to obtain 25%
rate of return within the twenty years' period.
Annex B