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B
may have reflected the fact that our resettlement of the family reunion cases under our SCORRI commitment would take about a year, with no commitment by HMG on the resettlement of further numbers of refugees thereafter.
Forecast of Possible Trends in Hong Kong's Refugee Population
9.
The
The prospects for Hong Kong's refugee population in 1986 are thus for a higher rate of departures than in 1985, but also for a significantly higher rate of arrivals. expected departure rate represents an increase of approximately one fifth over
fifth over 1985 levels. But Hong Kong's arrival rate has nearly doubled this year (see the analysis in Hong Kong Telno 1970). On present trends (2100 arrivals, 400 births and 4800 departures this year) this will mean that Hong Kong's refugee population will stand at approximately 7000 by end 1986, compared with 9443 at end-1985.
10.
Unless we can give further effective encouragement to resettlement countries after end 1986 there
there will remain only the continuing programmes of Australia, Canada and the US. In 1985 these together accounted for some 3,580 out of the 3,953 refugees resettled from Hong Kong. However even these programmes cannot be regarded as assured to remain at 1986 levels because:
(a) Australia has difficulties
difficulties in funding its resettlement programme. This has already meant that an anticipated allocation in mid-1986 of further places for Hong Kong refugees is now unlikely;
(b) Canada has indicated that a decision on its 1987 allocation for Hong Kong will be taken in the light of a UK decision on a further resettlement;
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