CONFIDENTIAL
departures.
They then argue, however, that ODP is important as a symbol: as
an indication to those thinking of leaving by boat that it is possible (just) that one day
day they will be able to leave legally; and as a symbol that the present Vietnamese regime might eventually become more liberal than it is now. I would accept that argument though it is a pretty unclutchable straw for hard-pressed places of first asylum like Hong Kong.
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6. In conclusion, we must I think be very wary of erecting tod close a connection between ODP and the pattern of illegal departures. I doubt if it is there. And I could (with equal sophistry) erect a respectable case for ODP encouraging other types of departure (eg if I escape successfully my family can follow safety under ODP ; ΟΙ, once I am established overseas under ODP then, if they cannot leave legally, my family nevertheless have a greater incentive to follow me out illegally, and thereafter secure resettlement in the same country; and, in the end, if the regime is showing signs of becoming more liberal, then perhaps I face fewer risks
risks in seeking to escape
etd etc). Finally, and separately, places of first asylum such Hong Kong do tend of course to regard ODP as a direct disadvantage to them in resettlement terms: countries (UK included) who accept orderly departures are inclined to argue that they cannot resettle more refugees from camps in places of first asylum precisely because of their prior commitments under
the ODP.
14 August 1986
сс
Mrs Darling Rogerson, UND
CONFIDENTIAL
C
CE Leeks
Hong Kong Department