FM HANO!!
RESTRICTED
TO TELELETTER FCO
TELELETTER
MOF 20010OZ JUNE 86
ны)
115
FM M JH WOOD ESQ., HANOI
TO S T NASH ESQ., SEAD., FCO
INFO C T WOOD ESQ., ASS. POL. AD. HONG KONG GOVT SECT.
243/5 11
23/6
HONG KONG TELNO 1318: VIETNAM REFUGEES (ADJOURNMENT DEBATE)
1.
Þ HAVE ONLY JUST SEEN HONG KONG'S T U R.
2.
TUR PARA 3 THOSA WHO LEAVE ILLEGALLY ARE LIKELY TO BELIEVE THEIR CHANCES OF EVENTUAL RESETTLEMENT (WHETHER IN HONG KONG OR ELSEWHERE) WILL BE ENHANCED IF THEY CLAIM SOME MEASURE OF POLITICAL GERSECUTION, RATHER THAN ECONOMIC DISSATISFACTION. THERE ARE NO SIGNS THAT POLITICAL REPRESSION IS INCREASING
(IF ANYTHING THINGS HAVE EASED SLIGHTLY).
3. THE ECONOMY IS A DIFFERENT MATTER. FOLLOWING THE
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 1985 ECONOMIC REFORMS THERE WAS A PERIOD
OF VERY HIGH INFLATION. PRICES ROCKETED FOR THE 6 MONTHS FROM
SEPTEMBER 1985 TO FEBRUARY 1986. IT IS LIKELY THAT IT IS THE
DETERIORATION IN THE ECONOMIC SITUATION WHICH HAS PERSUADED
MANY, BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH, TO ATTEMPT TO ESCAPE BY BOAT IN RECENT MONTHS.
4.
IT WOULD BE USEFUL TO KNOW FROM HONG KONG WHETHER THE ARRIVALS
BY BOAT THERE ARE NOW SLOWING DOWN AND WHETHER NORTHERNERS
NOW STILL FORM A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL BOAT ARRIVALS. INFLATION STEADIED IN LATE FEBRUARY AND PRICES ROSE ONLY LITTLE
IN THE FOLLOWING QUARTER. NEVERTHELESS SEVERE RAINS DURING
THE PAST 3 MONTHS MAY HAVE DAMAGED THE SPRING/SUMMER RICE CROP IN THE NORTH AND THIS, WITH THEUSUAL INCREASE IN VEGETABLE AND MEAT PRICES AS THE SUMMER WEARS ON, WILL PROBABLY MEAN MANY MORE
WILL DECIDE TO TRUST THEIR LUCK TO THE SEA IN THE HOPES OF
BETTER ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
5. SLOWDOWN IN ODP DOES NOT YET SEEM TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR.
M J H WOOD
YYYY
FCO PASS HONG KONG
RECEIVEL.
HEHPAN 0558
NNNN
HKCK 243/3
A
REGISTRY 27 JUN 1986
TAY
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