Analysis of Current Situation
CHO06583/
In numerical terms, there is a balance between levels of outflow and levels of resettlement, with little indication of progress towards a resolution. For indications of possible ways ahead it is necessary to look in some detail at each of the three situations making up the Indochinese refugee situation.
Vietnam
The outflow of Vietnamese boat people is down to some 20,000 per annum. Given the slow down in the rate of decrease over the last two years, the level of outflow does not appear likely to go much below 20,000 in the immediate future. The outflow now contains a high proportion of persons with few claims to refugee status. These persons tend to possess no personal or familial history of persecution and no links with third countries.
Humane deterrence policies pursued by Thailand and Hong Kong have lowered the level of arrivals in those countries and may have had an impact on overall arrivals. Selection policies pursued by some resettlement countries intended to prevent resettlement of non-refugees have led to significant build-ups of rejected groups. While these policies may have had an impact on the overall level of outflow they have significantly failed to deter the departure of ineligible groups. The need to ensure that the effect of these measures, notably the build up of long staver populations, does not impact adversely on the continued availability of first refuge has caused pressure to accelerate the resettlement of eligible cases.
This process, however, encourages expectations of resettlement and serves as an encouragement to irregular departures. There is equally a clear risk of any multilateral initiative to resettle the long stayers increasing the exodus, In short, the combination of significant long stayer populations and a continued high level of outflow presents difficult choices.
The first refuge Governments continue officially to rule out local integration, with the partial exception of Hong Kong. vietnam has up to now effectively rejected voluntary repatriation except for a handful of involuntary departures. First refuge Governments have shown little interest in pursuing voluntary repatriation with Vietnam or involving themselves in the pursuit of long term solutions generally. Any successful solution will require some adjustment of these approaches.
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