G. THE US SIDE MET WITH THE VIETNAMESE AND UNHCR IN BANGKOK IN EARLY MARCH BUT WITHOUT ANY POSITIVE RESULT. AUSTRAL HAN PRESSURE HAS ALSO FAMLED, SO FAR, TO SHIFT THE VIETNAMESE. UNHCR HAVE PROPOSED A MEETHING OF ODP RECIPIENT COUNTRIES REPRESENTED HERE TO DISCUSS THE SITUATION.
COMMENT
4.
>
VIETNAMESE POLICY LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN ODP DEPARTURES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FRUSTRATION AMONG THOSE EXPECTING TO MOVE TO A BETTER LIFE BY JOINING THEIR RELATIVES IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. SUCH GROWING HIMPATIENCE WILL MAINTAIN, PERHAPS INCREASE THE DESIRE OF VIETNAMESE TO LEAVE ILLEGALLY EITHER BY BOAT OR BY LAND INTO THAILAND, WHERE THEY MAY HOPE TO SHORTCUT THE PROCEDURE FOR REACHING THEIR ULTIMATE DESTINATION.
5. THERE SEEMS TO BE GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG COLLEAGUES THAT ILLEGAL DEPARTURES, AND ODP DEPARTURES, ARE NOW MOTIVATED PRIMARILY BY ECONOMIC REASONS RATHER THAN ARISING FROM ACTIVE POLITICAL PERSECUTION. THE PRESENT LOW RATE OF GROWTH IN THE ECONOMY AND THE INCREASING POPULATION PRESSURE ON AVAILABLE JOBS DOES NOT OFFER AN ATTRACT INE ALTERNATIVE FOR THOSE WHO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF ACHIEVING A MUCH BETTER STANDARD OF LIVING BY ILLEGAL DEPARTURE.
6.
HEAD OF CHANCERY REFERS IN HIS REPORT ABOVE TO THE MNCREASE IN ANTI-SRV ACTIVITY BY VIETNAMESE ALREADY ABROAD, AS THE MOST LIKELY FACTOR BEHIND VIETNAMESE INCREASING RELUCTANCE TO LET OUT OF THE COUNTRY THE RE-EDUCATION CAMP DETAINESS AND OTHERS. IN THIS THE VIETNAMESE HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY BEEN OBSERVING THE DIFFICULTIES EXPERIENCED BY INDIA WITH THE EXPATRIATE SIKH EXTREMISTS MEN CANADA AND ELSEWHERE. THERE SEEMS NO DOUBT THAT SOME OF THOSE IN THE 1985 QUOTE TREASON UNQUOTE TRIALS WERE EXPATRIATE VIETNAMESE WHO HAD RETURNED BEARING WEAPONS (THE PREVIOUS FRENCH AMBASSADOR TOLD ME THAT THE TWO CONVICTED PERSONS IN WHOM FRANCE HAD DIRECT INTEREST WERE CERTAINLY IN THAT CATEGORY.
7. ANOTHER POSSIBLE REASON IS THAT WIETNAM HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSCIOUS THAT MANY OF THE ODP CANDIDATES POSSESS SKILLS THAT ARE IN SHORT SUPPLY AND BADLY NEEDED WITHIN VIETNAM.
8. #LT WOULD BE HELPFUL TO HAVE UP-TO-DATE GUIDANCE ON HMG'S ATTITUDES TO THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS BEFORE THE MEETING PROPOSED BY UNHCR AND BEFORE THE FAC VISIT.
RG TALLBOYS
YYYY
10-16 April
FCO PASS UKMIS GENEVA, HONG KONG, BANGKOK, WASHINGTON, MANILA, FCO PASS UKMIS NEW YORK, JAKARTA, KUALA LUMPUR, SINGAPORE, FCO PASS UKREP BRUSSLES. CANBERRA OTTAWA ATHENS, BONN FCO PASS BRUSSELS, COPENHAGEN, DUBLIN, LUXEMBOURG, PARIS FCO PASS ROME, THE HAGUE, MADRID, LISBON
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