C.S. 166
XCC (83) 125
Timing
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If the above recommendation is accepted and the KCRC accepts the commitment, the timing could be as follows. Most of the preparatory work has been completed, and with turnkey contracts of the type proposed by the consortia, the Corporation would not necessarily have to prepare individual tender documents. By April 1984, it should be possible to call for formal tenders; examination of the bids could begin in mid 1984; selection of the successful consortium and "notice to proceed" could be achieved in autumn 1984. The first services could be commissioned in late 1987, although the LRT operator's bus services could be functioning earlier, if necessary.
Network size and fares
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to
With a wider distribution of population centres within the region, a potential LRT network of double the length of the original plan is required. Traffic forecasts have been made for the full network, but it has always been the intention build the network in
stages according to the progress of the developments it will
This would spread the investment over a period of at
least five years. Experience with the first stages would show when additional lines would be financially justifiable. The map at Annex A shows the sections forming the initial network and those to be phased-in subsequently.
serve.
to
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The consortia have assessed their proposals on a variety of fare assumptions, with average
with average fares between $1.10 and $3.00 at present values. Most consortia propose distance-related fares, and in order to achieve an early break-even date, average fares tend
tend to be higher than existing bus fares. The Administration's
The Administration's view is that LRT fares should not be more than about 30% above bus fares (e.g. about $1.50 at present prices for the journey from Tuen Mun to Yuen Long). In any case, if fares are too high traffic would be diverted other modes or suppressed. Much depends on the speed and efficiency of the system itself. Consortium 'C
C' for example provides a satisfactory model with acceptable fares on a full network operated at higher
at higher than average speeds; this would improve productivity and attract ridership. In the longer term, it is likely that labour costs will become an increasing proportion of operating costs, and in this respect, the LRT fare structure will be less vulnerable than a bus fare structure to escalating labour costs.
Fall-back position
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Members will note that the proposal to invite KCRC to take on the project carries with it a built-in safeguard. If, after its own investigation, the KCRC concludes that the project is not viable and it decides not to proceed, then the bus alternative can be adopted. The capital works required for the bus option are flexible in timing.
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