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AUG 16 '86 11:37 TIB(OOU) HK GOVT
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P.5
According to the Accident Assessment Phase I report, all the cal- culated measures of risk are very low by everyday standards. The report says: (1) There is about one chance in thirty million, per reactor year, of the occurrence of one or more early deaths. There is less than one chance in a hundred million, per reactor year, of the occurrence of more than a thousand early deaths. (2) There is about one chance in fifty thousand, per reactor year, of the ccourr-nce of one or more cases of fatal cancer (after a delay of up to several decades). There is less than one chance in a million, per reactor year, of the occurrence of more than three hundred such fatal cancers. (3) There is just over one chance in ten million, per reactor year, of the occurr. nce of one or more early injuries and about one chance in fifty thousand, per reactor year, of the occurrence of one or more cases of thyroid effects. (4) There is about one chance in five million, per reactor year, that one or more persons would be evacuated to reduce acute exposure. There is about one chance in a million, per reactor year, that one or more persons would be subject to re-location to avoid chronie exposure. There is also about one
chance in a million, per reactor year, that more than one square
kilometre of land would be banned from habitation and use. The Accident Assessment Phase I report says the effect of food-chain pathways of radiation exposure is not included at this stage and that only a severe, and extremely improbable, accident could have
significant consequences for Hong Kong.
In the absence of detailed design features of the Daya Bay nuclear power plant, the likelihood of accidents is assessed on the basis of earlier safety studies, scaled according to the size of the plant. The probability of a severe accident is assessed to be about one chance in twenty thousand per reactor year of operation. are two reactors in the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant and the estimated life span is thirty years, G.J. Osborne said the chance of a serious accident in the plant would therefore be 1/333. Then if the external factors are to be included, the chance is 1/166.
As there
/Radiation