GRS 700
SECRET
FM PEKING
TO DESKBY 27090OZ FCO
TELNO 1116
OF 270839Z JUNE 86
INFO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG
SECRET
HONG KONG TELNO.1973 AND YOUR TEL TO HONG KONG NO.1254:
NUCLEAR SAFETY: CHINA.
1. THERE WOULD, OF COURSE BE VERY SERIOUS COSTS IN OUR POINTING OUT TO THE CHINESE THAT POLITICAL BENEFITS COULD ACCRUE IN HONG
KONG FROM A DECISION TO MOVE THE PROJECT FROM DAYA BAY OR TO CONVERT IT TO A TERMAL STATION. THE CHINESE WOULD BE AMAZED BY THIS DISAPPEARANCE OF SUPPORT FOR A PROJECT WHICH HAS ENJOYED THE BACKING OF THE PRIME MINISTER FROM THE START AND TO WHICH MINISTERS RECOMMITTED THEMSELVES DURING HU YAOBANG'S VISIT. THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT, AND THE FRENCH COMPANIES CONCERNED WOULD PRESUMABLY BE DISMAYED, TO SAY THE LEAST., AND I DO NOT IMAGINE THAT GEC WOULD WISH THEIR HARD-EARNED LETTER OF INTENT FOR A CONTRACT WORTH NEARLY
POUNDS 250 MILLION TO BE PUT AT RISK.
2. THERE ARE VARIOUS CROSS-CURRENTS WHICH WE SHALL NEED TO BEAR IN MIND. THE CHINESE NUCLEAR PROGRAMME HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY CURTAILED IN RECENT MONTHS. IT HAS ALSO BEEN THE SUBJECT OF SUBSTANTIAL ORGANISATIONAL CHANGES, THE LEADING ROLE OF THE MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES AND ELECTIRC POWER HAVING BEEN CUT BACK IN FAVOUR OF THE MINISTRY OF NUCLEAR INDUSTRY. THESE CHANGES PREDATED CHERNOBYL AND WERE RELATED TO BUDGETARY CONSTRAINTS AND INTER-DEPARTMENTAL RIVALRIES. NEVERTHELESS, THEY INDICATE THAT THE NUCLEAR OPTION WAS ALREADY COMING UNDER CLOSE SCRUTING IN CHINA BEFORE CHERNOBYL. AS SONG JIAN (CHAIRMAN OF THE STATE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COMMISSION) SAID ON 16 JUNE, THE MAINSTAY FOR CHINA'S ENERGY REQUIREMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COAL AND HYDRO-ELECTRICITY. THE HOPES OF OVERSEAS SUPPLIERS SUCH AS FRAMATOME, KWU, WESTINGHOUSE AND MITSUBISHI OF SUPPLYING WHAT WAS ONCE SEEN AS A VERY AMBITIOUS FUTURE CHINESE CIVIL NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME HAVE HAD LARGELY TO BE PUT ON ICE, AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 3 YEARS. IT IS BY NO MEANS INCON- CEIVABLE THAT A BODY OF OPINION EXISTS AMONG CHINESE DECISION- MAKERS WHICH WOULD NOT BE AVERSE TO SEEING THE DAYA BAY PROJECT CANCELLED. IN PERSONALITY TERMS, THIS COULD HOWEVER HAVE IMPLI– CATIONS FOR THE PROPONENTS OF THE PLANT, PRINCIPALLY LI PENG.
3. MYSELF SUSPECT THAT THE CHINESE IN GENERAL, AND LI PENG IN PARTICULAR, ARE SEEKING TO SHIFT TO THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT SOME OF THE RESPONSIBILITY WHICH IS PROPERLY THEIRS FOR ENSURING THAT THE POWER STATION IS MADE AS SAFE AS POSSIBLE DURING THE PHASES OF CONSTRUCTION, TESTING AND OPERATION. THEY ARE CERTAINLY NOT FULLY COMMITTED YET TO ACCEPTING THEIR FULL RESPONSIBILITIES IN RESPECT
SECRET
/OF.
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