5.
## EXPECT THEREFORE THAT ANXIETY ABOUT DAYA BAY WILL PERSIST
DURING THE WHOLE PERIOD OF HITS CONSTRUCTION. THE DEMAND BY PRESSURE. GROUPS THAT THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT SHOULD REPRESENT TO THE CHINESE
AT DAYA BAY IS NOW TOO DANGEROUS A PROPOSITION FOR HONG KONG WILL
BE A RECURRING ONE. IN THE SHORT TERM, AS LONG AS THERE IS NO ACCIDENT AT A FRENCH NUCLEAR POWER STATION THIS PRESSURE SHOULD BE
CONTAINABLE. IF SUCH AN ACCIDENT DOES OCCUR THEN PUBLIC PRESSURE
MAY WELL BECOME IRRESISTIBLE ON THE MEMBERS OF THE LEGISLATIVE
COUNCIL TO PASS A RESOLUTION URGING HMG TO PERSUADE THE CHINESE TO
ABORT THE PLAN.
6. THE CONCERN IS NOT ONLY EMOTIONAL. M HAVE RECENTLY HEARD OF
SENIOR HONG KONG CHINESE BUSINESSMEN EXPRESSING THE VIEW THAT THE
CHINESE WOULD BE WISE NOT TO PROCEED WITH DAYA BAY BECAUSE IT WILL
DETER FOREIGN BUSINESS FROM COMING HERE. SIR S. Y. CHUNG TOLD ME
THAT HE DID NOT EXCLUDE REPRESENTATIONS BEING MADE TO THE
ADMINISTRATION ON THE LINES THAT PEOPLE IN HONG KONG WOULD PREFER
TO PAY THE CHINESE A FEW CENTS MORE FOR THE ELECTRICITY IN ORDER
TO SEE DAYA BAY CONVERTED TO A THERMAL PLANT RATHER THAN TAKE THE
RISK INVOLVED IN THE OPERATION OF A NUCLEAR REACTOR THERE.
7. THESE ARE THE SHORT TERM RISKS. I ALSO FORESEE A DANGEROUS RISE
IN ANXIETY IN THE EARLY 1990S WHEN THE TIME COMES TO COMMISSION
THE PLANT. THIS WILL COME AT A MOST UNFORTUNATE TIME BECAUSE THAT
IS ALSO THE PERIOD WHEN ANXIETY ABOUT THE TRANSITION WILL BEGIN
TO REACH ITS PEAK.
8. TO SUM UP CHERNOBYL HAS CHANGED THE NUCLEAR PICTURE. THERE WOULD
NOW BE AN IMMENSE SIGH OF RELIEF IN HONG KONG IF THE CHINESE
DECIDED TO MAKE DAYA BAY A THERMAL INSTEAD OF A NUCLEAR PROJECT.
IF THEY DO NOT, THE RISK OF AN ACCIDENT IN A FRENCH-TYPE REACTOR
ENGENDERING STRONG POLITICAL PRESSURES IN HONG KONG FOR HMG TO
PERSUADE THE CHINESE TO CALL A HALT WILL REMAIN A SERIOUS ONE. EVEN
IF THE CONSTRUCTION PERIOD IS SAFELY NEGOTIATED THERE WILL
INEVITABLY BE A SIGNIFICANT RECRUDESCENCE OF ANXIETY AT THE TIME
THE PLANT IS COMMISSIONED, WITH A CONSEQUENT IMPACT ON CONFIDENCE.
YOUDE
YYYY
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