moderate
(2);
; and
world commodity prices generally and oil
particular remained soft
(3)
•
product prices in
However,
with the unfavourable exchange rate movements and the firming
up of import prices in the second quarter of 1986 (paragraph
6.3), some increase in the rate of inflation in the second
half of 1986 seems likely.
Import prices
6.3
Despite the softening of
world commodity prices
generally, import prices, measured in terms of the unit value index of imports, picked up in the
up in
second quarter of 1986.
/The
(2) Seasonally adjusted annual rates of price increase in Hong Kong's
major trading partners in 1984, 1985 and 1986:
CPI/Private consumption
expenditure deflator
GNP/GDP deflator
1984 1985
1986 (forecast)
1984 1985
1986 (forecast)
(응) (응)
(8)
(8)
(%)
(8%)
All OECD countries
5.3 4.8
3.5
4.9
4.7
4.0
United States FR Germany
4.1 3.2
2.8
4.1
3.4
2.8
2.5 2.0
0
1.8
2.1
2.3
United Kingdom
4.6 5.4
4.0
3.9
6.1
3.8
Japan
2.1 2.2
0.5
1.3
1.7
1.5
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, May 1986.
According to the official figures released by China's State Statistical Bureau, the inflation rate of China was estimated at 3% in 1984, 9% in 1985 and 8% (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 1986.
(3) Year-on-year rates of increase in world commodity prices (%) :
1985
1986
Q1
Q2
All commodities
-8
-10
Cotton
-16
-20
-11
Petroleum
-2
-2
Iron ore
0
-2
Metal
-6
-3
2 TE747
Q4
Q1
-4
-2
-6
-1
N.A.
N.A.
-13
-5
-1
-7
-8
Source: International Financial Statistics, June 1986.
54