13 MAR 1986
нино
RECEIVED IN REGISTRY
DESK OFFICER
INDEX
REGISTRY
PA
Action Taken
GRS 370
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG
L
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
CONFIDENTIAL
TOP COPY
TELNO 559
OF 21085OZ FEBRUARY 86
WINFO IMMEDIATE PEKING
مد
HONG KONG AGREEMENT: LOCAL CONFIDENCE SURVEY
04016
PARA 9 OF OUR TELNO 517 REFERRED TO AN OPINION SURVEY ON LOCAL CONFIDENCE COMMISSIONED BY SCM POST. THE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED BY SURVEY RESEARCH HONG KONG LTD (SRH) WHICH HAD DEVELOPED TWO INDEXES SINCE JANUARY 1985 TO MEASURE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CONFIDENCE RESPECTIVELY. RESPONDENTS WERE MAINLY ASKED WHETHER THEY WERE (A) VERY CONFIDENT, (B) QUITE CONFIDENT, (C) NOT QUITE CONFIDENT OR (D) NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT ABOUT THE FUTURE OF HONG KONG.
BUT
2. THE FIRST SURVEY TOOK PLACE IN JANUARY 1985 WHEN 23 PERCENT AND 63 PERCENT OF THE RESPONDENTS WERE VERY CONFIDENT AND QUITE CONFIDENT RESPECTIVELY. THESE PERCENTAGES BECAME 23 PERCENT AND 66 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY MN THE SECOND SURVEY HELD IN MAY 1985, DECLINED SOMEWHAT TO 17 PERCENT AND 63 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY IN SEPTEMBER 1985 WHEN THE THIRD SURVEY TOOK PLACE. THE FOURTH SURVEY CONDUCTED IN NOVEMBER 1985 INDICATED THAT 16 PERCENT WAS VERY CONFIDENT AND 66 PERCENT QUITE CONFIDENT. THESE PERCENTAGES WERE TRANSLATED INTO TWO INDEXES WHICH ASSIGNED 100 TO JANUARY 1985. THE COMPUTED FIGURES IN THE POLITICAL CONFIDENCE INDEX WERE 101, 98 AND 97 FOR MAY, SEPTEMBER AND NOVEMBER 1985 RESPECTIVELY. CORRESPONDING FIGURES IN THE ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE INDEX WERE 105,
94 AND 94 RESPECTIVELY.
3. THE SURVEY INDICATED THAT THOSE WHO WERE NOT CONFIDENT WERE NOT SPECIFIC TO ANY ONE INCOME OR OCCUPATION GROUP. THERE WERE AS MANY AMONG YOUNGER THAN OLDER AGE GROUPS, MORE AMONG MEN THAN WOMEN, MORE AMONG MARRIED PEOPLE THAN UNMARRIED, MORE AMONG LESS WELL- EDUCATED THAN THOSE WITH POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION AND MORE AMONG FACTORY AND SHOP-WORKERS.
4. ALTHOUGH THE RESULT OF THE SURVEY SEEMS TO CO-INCIDE WITH OUR OWN READINGS THAT THE LEVEL OF GENERAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE HAS SOMEWHAT WANED SINCE THE SIGNING OF THE JOINT DECLARATION, ONE SHOULD NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE SURVEY. THE SAMPLE SIZE COVERING ABOUT 1,000 RANDOMLY SELECTED INDIVIDUALS IS SMALL IN RELATION TO THE POPULATION. FURTHERMORE, THE NUMBER OF RESPONDENTS CATEGORIZED AS PROFESSIONALS/MANAGERS/EXECUTIVES/
CONFIDENTIAL
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