MKK OGOR
TRY
2 FEB 1986
CONFIDENTIAL
From:
I C Orr
بيه
Mor Powell
Dr Wilson
den
STRY
on Taken
Date:
t
PA. Future
CC:
We were consulted about this submission in drafs, esp. paras 8 et seq I don't think we'll have much to
add at this stage.
ful Kayden
CHINA: ANNUAL REVIEW FOR 1985
ial
Far Eastern Department
19 February 1986
PS/PUS
Sir W Harding
Mr Galsworthy, HKD Miss Neville-Jones,
Planning Staff Mr Walker, RD (FE) Mr Rollo, Economic
Advisers
PUSD (CN)
Sir P Cradock,
10 Downing Street Mr Wright, Assessments Staff, Cabinet Office Mr Beston, OT2/3, DTI
1. I submit Sir R Evans' Annual Review for 1985, together with the Peking Embassy's Calendar of Events. This is a good despatch. It provides a full and balanced survey of Chinese internal and external affairs and of UK-China relations. I agree with its broad judgements I have sent an interim acknowledgement, In line with the PUS' standing instructions, we shall reply substantively to Sir R Evans in due course, incorporating any comments you and other have on this submission. The following aspects seem to me to deserve particular attention.
China Internal Situation
2. Sir R Evans is optimistic. He does not "see the reform programme itself being at risk, either before or after the death of Deng Xiaoping" (paragraph 8). A judgement about continuity of policy after Deng (who is now 81 and whose health has been the subject of recent speculation) is central to any debate about China (including that on UK policy). I agree in essence with the Ambassador but believe that some caveats are required.
3. Deng and his reformist colleagues certainly made further significant.progress in 1985. As Sir R Evans indicates, practical economic questions are now firmly established at
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CONFIDENTIAL
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