CONFIDENTIAL

literally makes comprehension difficult. It is unclear whether this excitement will come to anything before June 1987 when the next General Election is due.

13. In the gradual move towards parliamentary democracy the Thais seem paradoxically happy to have Generals and Air Marshals as their political leaders: the two most impressive people I met were Air Chief Marshal Siddhi, now Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the Social Action Party as well as Foreign Minister, and Squadron Leader Prasong, Secretary General of the National Security Council and responsible for internal security.

14. Thailand's growth seems certain to slow down substantially due to falling maize, rice and tin prices. She has a relatively high level of external debt and the next 5 year Plan to be published this autumn must be a cautious one. British firms will find it even harder to win contracts and they are likely to be asked to take quantities of Thai goods in part barter. Meanwhile, corruption is unlikely to diminish. Nevertheless, Britain should persevere in an attempt to increase its share in the Thai market. This is not a one-product economy. There is plenty of space for a larger population (now 51 million) and, alongside Indonesia, Thailand is likely over the years to be the most important market for our exports in ASEAN.

15. There appears to be little prospect of substance in EC/Asean relations. We should use these meetings as opportunities to promote our bilateral interests on the sidelines.

16.

I spent a day visiting three refugee camps on the Cambodian border. These are impressively run and better organised than those I have seen either in Pakistan or in Hong Kong. The Thais have made adequate land available,, even if insisting that the camps be dangerously near the border, and the Khmer obviously have a gift for settling in and establishing a village pattern quickly. The work done by UNHCR, UNBRO, ICRC and other charities, including the British Christian Out-Reach, seems superb and I hope we will continue giving as much aid internationally and bilaterally as we can. The interest shown by our Embassy in Bangkok, the number of times they had organised visits to the camps and their gifts of medicines, were all evidently appreciated.

17. There is no sign of a solution to the disputed leadership within the KPNLF nor indeed of any change within Cambodia itself. The price demanded of the

CONFIDENTIAL

Share This Page