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for their adequate defence either to deter a specific threat or to provide a response in the event of failure to deter. Though
the 1985 OD paper on the Security of Small States did not identify any immediate threat to the dependencies in question,
such threats could arise in the future. Direct external
aggression (on the Falklands model) is not very likely but cannot be ruled out, perhaps particularly in times of increased international tension. More uncertain still is the risk of the
dependencies becoming involved inadvertently in other regional
disputes. The most likely threats however come in one of two forms. First is the externally inspired ideological subversion
on the Grenada model, and second is the threat arising from
modern international vice rings notably drugs, gun running and
financial corruption stemming from off-shore operations.
[Reference to example of Antigua]. The Caribbean states, close
as they are to the American continent, are much more vulnerable
to both of these threats than those in the mid-Atlantic or South
Pacific though the calm of the latter region has in recent years
become somewhat disturbed by nuclear and colonial issues.
10 These threats require different responses.
As the paper on
They are not great, though for
the security of small states approved by OD argued the appropriate deterrent to the threat of subversion lies partly in
political contacts and economic assistance, and partly in the
encouragement of self help through regional security arrangements (HMG is likely to consider military intervention the right answer
only as a final resort). Such costs fall on normal ODA,
diplomatic and MOD budgets.
reasons given in para 2.1.2, and because until now we have tended
to get away with spending the minimum necessary to maintain
stability, they are likely to rise. The same is largely true of
the costs of combatting the threat posed by drug traffic and
other crime related activities. Only in circumstances in which
preventative action has failed and a crisis occurs would major
Falklands style costs arise. Such operations should be within the UK's capability to mount though the exact circumstances are difficult to predict in general the problems involved increase
with the distance of the territory from the UK. The costs
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