CONFIDENTIAL
April 1987 was introduced in the Bermuda Senate in February 1986 but soundly defeated. Previous informal opinion polls have indicated that a public majority in favour of independence seemed unlikely, but that eventual independence was seen as inevitable. The strategic importance of Bermuda to NATO would be a crucial factor in any independence talks and the wider foreign policy implications for the UK and NATO of possible Bermudan independence are touched on in the next Section.
12. None of the other Caribbean territories shows any interest in the prospect of early independence and only the Cayman Islands have achieved financial security to the extent that independence is now feasible ; it is for consideration whether the UK is financially ready (or willing) to create the sort of financial security to enable the rest to attain independence. Independence is not an option for BAT, South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands, Ascension or BIOT as none of these has a permanent population, nor for Pitcairn which has a population of 58. Moreover, in the case of BIOT, HMG has unequivocally undertaken to cede these islands to Mauritius when they are no longer needed for defence purposes.
13. Abandonment: This option would involve either leaving the inhabitants in situ, providing there was no threat to their lives, or sponsoring their evacuation to the UK and/or other friendly countries willing to receive them. The 1973 review, envisaged that the latter scenario might come about naturally for Pitcairn in due course. However, it is far from certain that New Zealand would be willing to assume responsibility for Pitcairn, and if it were such a move might provoke objections from other States with a strategic interest in the area, namely the US and France. If Pitcairn was evacuated, HMG would have the problem of deciding what to do with an unpopulated territory. But, HMG might be reluctant to relinquish its presence in the area especially as annual costs of retaining Pitcairn as a dependent territory are minimal. The territories of Pitcairn, Henderson, Ducie and Oeno provide a
CONFIDENTIAL
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