CONFIDENTIAL

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of the Chinese bureaucracy.

Without younger, more technically-

minded, officials, it is difficult to see how reform could

ever succeed. A remarkable transformation has taken place. New faces are to be seen at all levels of the administration, who for the most part can be counted as committed supporters of reform (to it after all they owe their new eminence).

Recognising that trained talent, both scientific and technical and administrative, is crucial to the success of reform, Deng has made scientific and educational development major items on the Party's agenda. More than that, he has been prepared to tolerate a much greater degree of intellectual questioning and curiosity than his predecessors. This creates continual, and unresolved (even probably in his own mind), tensions over what can be considered legitimate areas of debate by the authorities, anxious always to prevent questioning of the Communist Party's role or rule. But it has to be tolerated, if the new ideas on which reform will depend are to be produced.

Problems

12. China has come a long way since 1978, but the path has not

been easy.

Deng Xiaoping has faced substantial opposition along the way. Many vested interests have been upset.

Incumbent officials have felt and continue to feel themselves

under threat from the new ideas and the new generation of younger and more skilled administrators. Others are far from convinced of the correctness of the policies, either because of ideological reservations or because they favour a more gradual approach. Although expressions of outright political

opposition are now rare because of Deng's political predominance, he will not last for ever. In any case, opponents can and do

resort to passive disobedience and obstruction which are

powerful weapons against a programme so dependent on continual forward momentum.

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