CONFIDENTIAL & B

21

judgement on the success of the zone.

Although the SSEZ

has probably disappointed its supporters as regards the way it has developed, it is still possible that it will

succeed at least partly as intended. The net outflow of

foreign exchange and the large inflow of imports are consistent with the way in which the SSEZ's development is being financed trading profits and foreign investment. Any front-end loaded investment experiences a negative cash flow in its early stages. Just as it would be wrong

to declare the SSEZ a success on the basis of the

investment that has been achieved

as the Chinese sometimes suggest it would be wrong to say it was a failure because that investment has yet to bear full

fruit.

Considerable potential is there, only time will

tell whether it can be realised.

Economic Analysis Division Economic Services Branch Government Secretariat 10 December 1985

G.F. 326

CONFIDENTIAL # 3

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