I
12
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authority of the Hong Kong Government.
For others in Hong
Kong, however, Chinese opposition to direct elections will cause them to turn against their introduction even if they
might otherwise have been moderately in favour. The result is increasing polarisation.
33. The two exercises under way in 1987, namely the 1987
Review and the drafting of the Basic Law, essentially involve parallel consultation of the same people on the same issues.
It should, at least in theory, be possible for the two sides to arrive at the same conclusion on the general principle of
direct elections. This is one of the main objects of the
informal dialogue that we have established with the Chinese. But in practice, given the increasing polarisation of opinion in Hong Kong and the sensitivity and innate conservatism of
the Chinese, it is likely to prove very difficult to achieve agreement on whether direct elections should be introduced in 1988. We have made some progress, and our success in establishing the informal dialogue provides the means to make
more. But we and the Chinese are still far from reaching a
common view. The problem of direct elections, and how to deal
with them in the 1987 Review, will be at the same time the
most difficult and the most important issue in Sino-British
relations over the next 12 months.
34.
This might not in itself present real problems for
the Chinese. They seem however to fear that it would be
merely the first step on the slippery slope to a fully
directly-elected legislature. As far as Hong Kong is
concerned, direct elections will not in themselves guarantee autonomy after 1997: this will need to be achieved by a much wider variety of means. But the introduction of even a few directly elected seats in 1988 is at present seen as matter of symbolic significance by substantial sections of Hong Kong opinion. On the other hand the introduction of direct elections, even for only a few seats, would involve a significant stepping-up of political activity in Hong Kong,