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could be destabilising factor. Hong Kong's would-be
politicians are inexperienced.
6.
Likely outcome of 1987 review on this issue one of two
scenarios:
7.
(i) consensus in favour of introducing small directly
elected element in 1988 elections. At present less probable outcome. Would have to explain to Chinese strong political need to respond, damage to authority in Hong Kong and Westminster if we
seemed to duck issue. A difficult task. But
possible to envisage devices (eg separate but
parallel statements on British and Chinese sides)
which might permit us to introduce direct elections
without loss of Chinese face.
(ii) no clear consensus. Most likely outcome. Depending on division of opinion, options would then be (a) to go ahead with a directly-elected element and tackle Chinese as in (i), but on weaker ground; (b) to
postpone decision on direct elections. With latter
option, problem of compatibility with Chinese
intentions reduced. But we should face criticism
from some in Hong Kong and Parliament, and Hong Kong confidence could be damaged.
In meantime, vital to intensify dialogue with Chinese over all issues connected with structure of government and Basic Law. My exchanges with Wu Xueqian on these issues have been constructive and friendly. The greater our mutual trust, the better the prospects of managing problems in this
sensitive area.
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