CONFIDENTIAL
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4. TO ESTABLISH SUCH AN OFFICE WOULD IN
THEORY ENABLE US TO COUNTER MORE EFFECTIVELY ANY ALLEGATIONS FROM
WITHIN HONG KONG OR AT WESTMINSTER THAT THE REVIEW WAS NOT A
GENUINE ONE, OR THAT ITS FINDINGS WERE BEING DISTORTED.
BUT IT SEEMS TO US THAT THE ARGUMENTS AGAINST AN
ASSESSMENT OFFICE ARE MUCH THE STRONGER. SEEN FROM HERE THE MAIN
DISADVANTAGES INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING:
(A) THERE WOULD BE A CLEAR PARALLEL WITH THE 1984
ASSESSMENT EXERCISE. THAT WAS SUI GENERIS: THE WHOLE
FUTURE OF HONG KONG WAS AT ISSUE. TO SET UP SIMILAR
ARRANGEMENTS NOW WOULD ELEVATE THE QUESTIONS TO BE
CONSIDERED IN THE 1987 REVIEW TO THE SAME STATUS AS THAT
OF THE FUTURE OF HONG KONG ITSELF. WHILE MANY
PROTAGONISTS OF DIRECT ELECTIONS HAVE IN EFFECT TAKEN
THIS LINE ALREADY OUR OVERALL AIM SHOULD PRESUMABLY
REMAIN TO STRESS THE CAUTION AND PRUDENCE WITH WHICH WE
ARE APPROACHING THE WHOLE ISSUE OF REPRESENTATIVE
GOVERNMENT, IMPORTANT THOUGH IT IS. TO CONCEDE WITH SUCH CLEAR SYMBOLISM THAT A PARALLEL EXISTS WITH THE 1984
EXERCISE WOULD FURTHER RAISE THE TEMPERATURE OF WHAT WILL
ANYWAY PROVE A HEATED DEBATE.
(B) THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN ASSESSMENT OFFICE IN 1987 WOULD MEAN THAT SUCH AN OFFICE WOULD COME TO BE SEEN AS
AN EVER MORE NATURAL REQUIREMENT IN EVERY IMPORTANT
PUBLIC OPINION GATHERING EXERCISE. THERE WOULD BE A
DANGER OF ITS BECOMING AN INSTITUTIONALISED PART OF
GOVERNMENT.
(C) THERE WOULD BE A STRONG IMPLICATION THAT EXCO AND
LEGCO WERE NOT CAPABLE OF PERFORMING THEIR TASK OF
REFLECTING HONG KONG OPINION ON IMPORTANT ISSUES. DOUBT
WOULD ALSO BE CAST ON THE ABILITY OF THE HONG KONG
GOVERNMENT'S OWN OPINION-GATHERING MACHINERY (WHICH IS
EXTENSIVE) TO REACH AN OBJECTIVE OR BALANCED ASSESSMENT
OF LOCAL VIEWS.
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CONFIDENTIAL