GRS 950
SECRET
FM HONG KONG
TO DESKBY 21100OZ FCO
TELNO 848
OF 21013OZ MARCH 86
INFO IMMEDIATE PEKING
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REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNMENT, THE BASIC LAW AND THE 1987 REVIEW.
1. HAVE DISCUSSED THE WAY AHEAD WITH WILSON AND GALSWORTHY, AND SUBSEQUENTLY THIS WEEK WITH THE AMBASSADOR AND HUM.
2. SEEN FROM HERE WE HAVE TWO MAJOR OBJECTIVES :-
A) TO PERSUADE THE CHINESE THAT IF A CONSENSUS IN FAVOUR OF THE
HINTRODUCTION OF AN ELEMENT OF DIRECT ELECTIONS EMERGES IN HONG KONG
IN THE 1987 REVIEW, HT SHOULD BE RESPECTED. RIGHTLY OR WRONGLY, DIRECT ELECTIONS HAVE NOW BECOME A SYMBOL OF THE CHINESE
GOVERNMENT'S WILLINGNESS TO ALLOW THE SAR A GENUINE MEASURE OF
AUTONOMY. IT WOULD BE VERY DAMAGING IF THEY WERE SEEN TO BE RULED
OUT BECAUSE OF A CHINESE VETO.
B) TO ENSURE THAT THE CHINESE GET THE FIRST DRAFT OF THE BASIC LAW RIGHT. EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CHINESE WILL BE UNWILLING TO
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE DRAFT THAT WILL BE PUBLISHED IN
1988. IF THIS IS NADEQUATE, THERE WILL BE A SEVERE LOSS OF CONFIDENCE AND MORE PEOPLE WILL LEAVE HONG KONG.
3. WE HAVE GIVEN CAREFUL CONSIDERATION TO HOW WE CAN GET OUR VIEWS
ON THESE TWO IMPORTANT AREAS OVER TO THE CHINESE. ONE OBVIOUS WAY IS
THROUGH THE MEMBERS OF THE BLDC AND EVEN THE BLCC. ON JUDICIAL, AND
LEGAL MATTERS AND RIGHTS AND FREEDOMS THINK WE CAN DEPEND ON THE
HONG KONG LEGAL CONTINGENT IN THE TWO COMMITTEES TO PUT OVER THE MOST
IMPORTANT POINTS REASONABLY EFFECTIVELY. ON MOST OTHER SUBJECTS
COVERED IN THE JOINT DECLARATION THE CHINESE ARE PROBABLY UNLIKELY
TO GO TOO FAR WRONG. IF THEY DO STRAY FROM THE TERMS OF THE JOINT
DECLARATION, HMG HAS GROUNDS FOR MAKING A FORMAL OBJECTION.
4. THE MAN AREA OF DIFFICULTY WILL BE THE CONSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE,
BOTH BECAUSE IT IS NOT SPELT OUT IN ANY DETAIL IN THE JOINT
DECLARATION AND BECAUSE OF THE GREAT SENSITIVITY THAT THE SUBJECT
HAS NOW ASSUMED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF DISCUSSION
ON THE SUBJECT DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IN THIS CASE THE TWO COMMITTEES
WILL BE AN EFFECTIVE MEANS OF INFLUENCING THE CHINESE IN THE WAY WE
WISH THE CHINESE TO GO. ALMOST NONE OF THE HONG KONG MEMBERS HAS A
SUFFICIENT KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING OF THE ISSUES INVOLVED, AND
EVEN IF THEY DID IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE
THEIR VOICES EFFECTIVELY HEARD IN THE DELIBERATIONS OF THESE
UNWIELDY BODIES.
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