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2.
The paper's general prognosis (paras' 12-13) is that
unless there is early action to contain the problem, the
·
situation is likely to deteriorate. On reasonable
assumptions it could deteriorate quite rapidly between
now and 1988. We could eventually face rioting in the
camps: such a situation, besides creating difficult
security problems and much human misery, would certainly
result in widespread criticism or condemnation of HMG,
who would generally be seen as responsible. We cannot
avoid our constitutional responsibility for Hong Kong.
For these reasons a policy of inaction at this stage
seems neither viable nor sensible.
3. On the other hand there are no easy options, nor can
we say with any certainty that any of the courses of
action which have been identified will be successful in
containing the problem. A full solution to the problem
would require both success in increasing the rate of
departures, and in decreasing the rate of arrivals.
Il the
reasons given below the latter objective for the
moment is not likely to be attainable: this makes the
former objective doubly important.
For
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