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THEY ARE NOT REFUGEES.
(D) VIEW THAT UK SHOULD TAKE THE LEAD IN RESETTLING REFUGEES FROM
HONG KONG
THE MAIN REASON WHY HONG KONG HAS BEEN MORE AFFECTED BY THE
DECLINE IN RESETTLEMENT OFFERS THAN OTHER PLACES OF FIRST ASYLUM
APPEARS TO BE SIMPLY THAT OTHER COUNTRIES CONSIDER THAT THE UK,
AS THE METROPOLITAN POWER, SHOULD TAKE THE LEAD IN ACCEPTING A
FURTHER QUOTA FROM HONG KONG. EVIDENCE OF THIS IS SET OUT IN THE
ATTACHED EXTRACT FROM THE MEMORANDUM WHICH WE SUBMITTED IN OCTOBER 1984 TO SCORRI, AND EXPLICITLY IN THE US AND AUSTRALIA
SUBMISSIONS TO SCORRI. FURTHER SIMILAR REMARKS WERE MADE BY US,
AUSTRALIAN AND UNHCR OFFICIALS TO THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT
OFFICIAL WHO ATTENDED THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE MEETING OF UNHCR IN
OCTOBER 1984.
V BEGIN UNDERLINING PROGNOSIS END UNDERLINING
11. IN 1984 HONG KONG'S REFUGEE ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES
DECREASED BY 39 PERCENT AND 12 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY FROM THE 1983
LEVELS.
IF THESE RATES WERE TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS, HONG KONG'S
REFUGEE POPULATION WOULD FALL TO AROUND 6000 BY THE END OF 1988,
AND DWINDLE TO VIRTUALLY NOTHING BY 1993. (TABLE 1). BUT THIS
IS PROBABLY NOT A REALISTIC BASIS FOR CALCULATION. THE 39
PERCENT REDUCTION IN THE ARRIVAL RATE IN 1984 WAS LESS THAN THE
53 PERCENT REDUCTION IN 1983. HONG KONG BELIEVES THAT THEY ARE
NOW RECEIVING A HARD CORE OF DETERMINED VIETNAMESE EMIGRANTS WHO
HAVE NO FAITH IN THE ORDERLY DEPARTURE PROGRAMME AND WHO REGARD
THE CLOSED CENTRES AS NO DISCOURAGEMENT. MOREOVER THE EMBASSY IN
HANOI EXPECT FOOD SHORTAGES IN VIETNAM THIS YEAR, AND ALSO THAT
ILLEGAL EMIGRATION WILL BE INREASED AS A RESULT OF REPRESSIVE
PUNISHMENT METED OUT BY THE VIETNAMESE SUPREME COURT. HONG KONG
THEREFORE THINK IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE RATE OF DECREASE IN
ARRIVALS WILL BE AT BEST IN KEEPING WITH THE REGIONAL DECREASE (WHICH IS ITSELF SLOWING DOWN: IT WAS 17 PERCENT IN 1984)./ ON THIS BASIS, HONG KONG'S REFUGEE POPULATION COULD BE EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO AROUND 8,700 BY THE END OF 1988, PROVIDED THAT
RESETTLEMENT LEVELS DID NOT DECREASE ANY FASTER THAN IN 1984
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