RESTRICTED
12
(f)
Does the FCO really believe that closed camps have a
deterrent effect?
36%
1101%
530
Answer: Closed camps introduced July 1982. 1983 arrivals 50% less than 1982, 1984 39% less than 1983 (compared with S E Asian regional decreases of only and in the same years). There was
po decline, on the other hand, in Hong Kong's arrivals between 1980 and 1982, although there was a regional decline. Not absolute proof but suggests policy is having some deterrent effect.
In 1981 however, before the start of the closed centre
Ey policy, HK arrivals increased by 25%, whereas those for the region as anchore increased by only 5%.
(*figure to be checked with Hong Kong)
1982 In 1982, the year the closed centre policy
began, (too early there fare for it to
show full effect) Ak arrivals
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