i
(f) DOES THE FCO REALLY BELIEVE THAT CLOSED CAMPS HAVE A
DETERRENT EFFECT?
Closed centres introduced July 1982. In 1981, before the
start of the policy, Hong Kong arrivals increased by 25% over
1980 levels, whereas those for the region as a whole increased
by only 5%. In 1982, Hong Kong arrivals went down by only 7%, compared with a regional decline of 41%. In 1983 however,
by which time the closed centre policy was well established
and widly known about in Vietnam, Hong Kong arrivals were
53% less than those for 1982, compared with a regional
decline of 36%. In 1984 the Hong Kong decrease was 39%,
and that for the region only 11%. Not absolute proof but
suggests policy is having some
effect.