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would not be of central importance in this respect, and
in preliminary EC discussion there have been varying
opinions expressed on how fast and how favourably
China's request for rights short of membership in the
GATT should be handled. Accession would, however, help
to reinforce outward-looking tendencies in the Chinese
hierarchy and to educate it in the workings of the
world open trading system.
4.
Conversely, a rebuff to any Chinese application
would be seen by the Chinese as having political
significance, and would tend to reinforce the opposite
tendencies in China's behaviour. Domestic opposition
to the "open door" policy on which China's leadership
has embarked since the death of Mao has been relatively
ineffective in recent years, no doubt largely because
of the clear increase in China's prosperity, brought
about by a more liberal economy. But it could easily
re-emerge precipitated by new political or economic
pressures (eg following the death of Deng, or a bad
harvest). A rebuff in the GATT would not by itself be
crucial but it would nevertheless be a cumulative
factor. A rebuff might also encourage China, if her
economic development continues on its present path, to
begin to act the rogue elephant outside the
international trade system.
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