CONFIDENTIAL
5.
FRG/GDR/Soviet Union
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The FRG authorities are planning on the basis that Honecker's visit the first by a GDR Head of State - will take place from 26-29 September, though the visit has not been confirmed in East Berlin. The USSR has voiced disapproval of the recent intensification of FRG/GDR contacts (in two authoritative and unusually direct Pravda articles of 27 July and 2 August). One factor in Soviet thinking is probably that the GDR should not be seen to step out of line when the USSR is using increasingly harsh rhetoric to denigrate the US, and to demonstrate that INF deployment has done severe damage to East/West relations. A JIC assessment of GDR/Soviet relations has been prepared. Honecker has left his options open: excuses for a postponement are available - eg remarks by prominent West Germans which the Russians have used to support accusations of FRG 'revanchism' - but it is not clear that Honecker wishes to use them. So far this year Honecker has welcomed a procession of Western visitors (Craxi, Trudeau, Papandreou, Palme, Cheysson), and spoken of the duty of small states to work to reduce tensions between the superpowers. His visit to the FRG would be interpreted as contrary to Soviet wishes - most unusual for the GDR and would be applauded (quietly) by Hungary and Romania, who have both given Honecker discreet support.
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MIDDLE EAST/S.W. ASIA
6.
Israel, attempts to form a Government
We have little to add to the very full press reports in recent weeks. Mr Shimon Peres was given 3 weeks starting from
5 August to attempt to form a Government and this was extended in the normal way for a second period of 3 weeks on 26 August. If by 15 September he has not succeeded President Herzog may have to give the caretaker Prime Minister, Mr Shamir, his chance. There are unconfirmed reports that Peres and Shamir have reached agreement on the formation of a national unity government which would be headed for the first two years and one month by Peres and then for a similar period by Shamir. Another possible outcome might still be a minority Labour coalition. Peres' main problem in trying to form a government has been not so much over policies, as over personalities, the allocation of posts, and the detail of coalition-building.
7. Lebanon
The process of extending the security plan has been stalled throughout August and public confidence has been damaged. There have been fresh security incidents in Beirut. The Druze Chief of Staff was killed in an accidental air crash. Prime Minister Karami is labouring to bring his Cabinet back together.
The
CONFIDENTIAL
/Syrians