CONFIDENTIAL
assurances on the treatment of those concerned.
(c) Training
We explore methods of improving training facilities in
camps in Hong Kong.
the
SEAD and UND agree.
i
BACKGROUND
...
3.
The attached paper, agreed with SEAD, UND, Hong Kong and UKMis
Geneva, sets out factually the situation, predicts how it is likely
to develop if matters are left as they are, and examines all the
options of which we have been able to think, setting out their
advantages and disadvantages.
4.
The general prognosis (paras 12-13) is that unless there is
successful action to contain the problem, the situation is likely to
deteriorate.
On reasonable assumptions it could deteriorate quite
rapidly between now and 1988. We could eventually face rioting in
the camps: such a situation, besides creating difficult security
problems and much
much human misery, would certainly result in widespread
criticism or condemnation of HMG. For these reasons a policy of
inaction at this stage seems neither viable nor sensible.
5.
no easy options, nor can we say
On the other hand there are
with any certainty that any of the courses of action which have been
identified will be successful in containing the problem. A full
solution to the problem would require, first and foremost, success
increasing the rate of departures both to the UK and to other
countries. We must also try to decrease the rate of arrivals. The
latter is more difficult, but if it cannot be
in
resettlement
rate
achieved there is s ome
will actually stimulate more
danger that a better
refugee arrivals.
CONDIDENTTÄT