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CONFIDENTIAL
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4.
The re are
intrude on
think now
some special factors which
expectations and prognostications of China's development.
One that has previously been important, but
diminishing, is the common perception among the older
generation in Hong Kong that "you can't trust a communist".
This derives from experience in the 1920s-40s of
communist/KMT relations, as well as experience of communist
land reform and nationalisation policies of the early
1950s, and is found most commonly among ex-nationalists,
who form a majority of that generation in Hong Kong. This
view i s often still strongly expressed by individuals but
is diminishing slowly as more and more people in Hong Kong
are doing business with and travelling toChina.
5.
More importantly, as far as the general population is concerned, everyone has been intensely aware over the past
30 years of the sudden and often violent changes of policy
which have occurred in the People's Republic. There are
inevitably fears that this could happen again. People are | uneasily aware that reformist policies, and particularly
the policy of "one country, two systems" devised
devised for Hong
Kong (and Taiwan), are closely linked with Deng Xiaoping himself: his death will therefore create a serious
shock-wave in the colony. The longer he lives, and the
chosen convincing his
to be, appear
more
easier people will feel.
6.
successors
the
These factors apart, the population at large in Hong Kong seems to accept the inevitability of Hong Kong's
to
❘ reversion to China in 1997: being a pragmatic people, Hong
Kongers are
are not about to let that factor get in the way of their normal lives and personal self-advancement. People have a habit of persuading themselves of what they wish
believe. Just as before
started many the negotiations
people believed in
the the face of all the evidence that Chinese would somehow allow the status quo to continue, now many people believe that all will be well after 1997 out of a sort of natural optimism.
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CONFIDENTIAL