15.
Although the
Hong Kong Government's
earlier
territory
forecast of 7.2% economic growth in the during 1985 is
is now unlikely to be achieved, the economy is still expected to grow by a healthy 4.5% during the
The fall in the expected rate of growth i s
disappointing but judged by the standards of the major
manufacturing economies remains high.
year.
US PROTECTIONISM
16.
The main source of Hong Kong concern about US protectionism is the Thurmond/Jenkins Bill. This piece
of legislation which has already been passed by the
House of Representatives
as the Textile and Apparel
Trade Enforcement Act, and i s pending before the
Senate, has given rise to considerable concern in Hong
Kong. Based on actual 1984 trade, this legislation, if enacted, would cut Hong Kong exports of products within
the ambit of
of the Multifibre Arrangement by 13% and of
silk,
ramie and linen articles (which
(which are outside the
MFA) by about 70%. The value of trade loss to Hong
Kong could be of the order of US$ 1 billion, out of Hong Kong's total domestic exports to the world of US$
17.7 billion in 1984.
17. The Thurmond/Jenkins Bill apart, it is understood
that legislative proposals are being considered by
Republican senators which would remove Hong Kong,
Singapore and Israel from eligibility for the United
States Generalised System of Preferences. As Israel is
separately covered by other arrangements, Hong Kong and Singapore two of the most open trading entities
would thus be singled out for exclusion solely on
account of GNT
per capita.
-
Initial soundings of
Treasury and State indicate that
aware of the proposal they have
resources with which to address it. Hong
officials in
US TR,
while they
are
inadequate
Kong's aim is
aim is to nip the proposal in the bud. If it were to be incorporated in a trade bill it could prove