142.
SECRET CLASSICED
Reflecting the real increase in earnings and incomes in 1984, private consumption expenditure is forecast to show an increased but still moderate growth rate of 7% in 1985.
143.
Government consumption expenditure is forecast to
increase by 5%, compared with 3% in 1984.
144.
Private
investment expenditure is particularly difficult to estimate. The Joint Declaration on the future of
Hong Kong has, however, removed the uncertainty that hung over the economy in the last couple of years. Private investment in plant and machinery is forecast to increase by 16% in 1985 (71). Private investment in building and construction is expected to increase by 2%, compared with a decline of 9.5% in 1984. Largely due to a reduction in MTRC capital expenditure, public sector expenditure on building and construction however, forecast to decline by 8%, compared with a decline of 4% in 1984. These forecasts, when combined with the forecasts of some other, smaller, components, give a forecast growth rate for gross domestic fixed capital formation for 1985 of 5%, representing a significant improvement compared with the increase of under 1% that was recorded in 1984.
145.
is,
The forecast growth rate of imports associated with these forecasts of final demand is 18%, compared with 15% recorded for 1984. Net exports of services are forecast to increase by 15%, compared with 21% in 1984.
146.
These forecasts for the individual components of expenditure, when combined, give a forecast growth rate of the gross domestic product of 7%.
(71) Although the forecast growth rate for 1985 is less than that recorded in 1984, at 26%, much of the growth that occurred in 1984 represented the recovery of the backlog from 1982 and 1983.
G.F. 316
UNCLAS HEL
SECRET 高度機密