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4. THE OVERALL SITUATION IS VERY BRITTLE. THERE IS SOME SPECULATION AS TO WHETHER THE BANKS WILL RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATES AT TOMORROW'S MEETING, BUT THE MAIN FACTOR OVERHANGING THE MARKET IS MR LUCE'S STATEMENT TOMORROW, AND THE REACTION TO IT. THE PRESENT POSITION CANNOT BE TOLERATED INDEFINITELY, EITHER BY US, BECAUSE OF THE INTERVENTION WHICH IS REQUIRED, OR BY THE BANKS, BECAUSE OF THE EFFECT OF HIGH. INTEREST RATES ON THEIR FRAGILE CUSTOMERS.

HEARD SPECIFICALLY IN THIS LATTER CONTEXT WE HAVE NOT YET, HOWEVER, OF ANY BANKS IN DIFFICULTIES.

YOCDE

MINIMAL

HKD

ECONOMIC ADVISER

2

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