CONFIDENTIAL
BRIEF NO 8
PRIME MINISTER'S VISIT TO CHINA AND HONG KONG, 18-21 DECEMBER 1984
CHINA
INTERNATIONAL ISSUES: BACKGROUND NOTES
a)
Sino-Soviet relations
1. The Chinese continue to see the Soviet Union as the major threat to their security. They hold out little hope of early fundamental improvement in relations, but agreed in 1982 to hold regular talks at Deputy Foreign Minister level on normalisation
of relations.
There
2. The fifth round of talks was held in Peking in October. were no signs of Soviet movement on Chinese conditions for sub- stantially improved relations (Soviet forces in Afghanistan;
and missiles near Vietnamese forces in Cambodia; Soviet troops
Sino/Soviet border).
3.
High level exchanges are nevertheless increasing slowly. Foreign Ministers met at this year's UN General Assembly for the first time in 20 years. No new ground was covered but both sides agreed in principle to further meetings. A visit by First Deputy Prime Minister Arkhipov, originally scheduled for May, will now start on 21 December.
4.
Economic and other exchanges are also growing though from a low base. A 60% increase in trade is planned for 1985, to $1.2 billion. Scientific, cultural and sporting contacts are increasing. Arkhipov's visit should provide indications of how far this can continue without resolution of political differences. Discussions are likely to focus on economic cooperation, including Soviet assistance in modernising Chinese factories built to Soviet designs in the 1950s.
b)
Indo-China
5. On 18 November Vietnamese forces in Cambodia attacked a large Cambodian camp, Nong Chan, on the Thai/Cambodian border causing some 20,000 civilians to flee into Thailand. This appeared to
CONFIDENTIAL
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