Notes on Hong Kong's future.
1. The Joint Declaration:
This has been generally accepted by Hong Kong people in the full knowledge that -- as the introduction to the White Paper put it "the alternative to acceptance of the present agreement is to have no agreement ". However there is a growing feeling that although the document has to be accepted as it stands, there should be room for clarification and elaboration subsequently. Hang Kong people would like to be told that the agreement is not the last. word on the subject.
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2. The Sino-British Joint Liaison Group: Although supposedly only a consultative body, this group will clearly be the forum for deciding issues which arise during the 13 years of transition. (One of its functions is " to discuss matters relating the smooth transfer of government in 1997 " another to ...conduct consultations on such subjects as may be agreed by the two sides"). Hong Kong people would like to know how their views will be represented on the Group. At least there should be a de facto. arrangement for a portion of the British members and staff to be composed of Hong Kong representatives.
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3. Representative Reform: Who will speak for the Hong Kong people during these next years when their voice needs to be heard? The White Paper on representative reform, just published,
sets up indirect elections to less than half the LegCo, with the promise of a review in 1987 before further reforms. This does offer an advance on the original Green Paper proposals. The Governor has hinted that some element of direct elections might come after the review. But he stresses the need for a " step-by-step approach, in which the system will " evolve naturally to meet the needs of present-day Hong Kong " Community leaders fear this is an excuse for fudging. Although the Chinese take a cautious view of democratic change, pro-Peking trade unions have supported the drive for voter registration. Hong Kong has become increasingly politicised, partly because of the debate about its future and partly as a result of better education, increased travel, more participation in civic affairs etc. Indirect elections based on constituencies of warying size and composition ( district board electorates, functional groups of professionals) provide more opportunity for manipulation and encourage sectional interests. The aim should be a directly elected legislature by 1997, which will provide a real guarantee of autonomous rule based on the full political expression of public opinion.
4. Social Reform: Having largely solved the politial problem of the future, Hong Kong Govt should be encouraged to tackle social problems with far more vigour. This could be a danger area. Chinese concern about the budget deficit only reinforces HK Govt's conservativism. But the expected decline in land revenue could combine with any future reassion to put real pressure on already skimpy social services. Social order is likely to become more volatile as 1997 approaches. For this utilitarian reason alone (there are many of a humanitarian kind ) far more attention should be paid to the improvement of everyday life.
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